Weakened but still standing: The mighty Tory edifice. Don’t panic. This is a metaphor! Below: Alberta Premier Alison Redford.
It’s interesting to juxtapose the results of two new polls on related but different topics that were released yesterday – a Think HQ poll of Alberta voter intentions and an Environics poll of Albertans attitudes about taxes and public services.
The results of the former were published in the afternoon by CTV; the results of latter were released in the morning by the Alberta Federation of Labour, for which the survey was done.
If you believe them, the Think HQ numbers show support for Premier Alison Redford and her party alike falling through the floor.
Environics’ results show extremely strong support among Albertans for a return to a progressive income tax, higher corporate and wealth taxes, and higher petroleum royalties.
Looking at the polls in more detail, the Think HQ survey indicates support for the far-right Wildrose Party has shot up to 38 per cent, leaving the Tories of Premier Alison Redford in the dust with the support of committed voters at only 26 per cent.
That would be a drop of 18 per cent since the PCs won a 61-seat majority on April 23.
The poll indicated the NDP had the support of 16 per cent of respondents, and the Alberta Liberals that of 13 per cent. (NDP support was concentrated in Edmonton, where it sat at 26 per cent, in a statistical tie with the Wildrose at 27.) The seatless Alberta Party posted 3-per-cent support.
According to Think HQ’s analysis of the numbers, the PC election coalition that saved Ms. Redford’s bacon in April is eroding from both ends of the political spectrum.
It tells something about the state of political reporting in this province that neither CTV nor the Globe and Mail bothered to report the NDP or Alberta Liberal provincial numbers in their first runs at this story.
The poll was even harsher on Premier Redford’s personal popularity, indicating 58 per cent of respondents disapprove of her performance and 33 per cent approve.
By contrast, the spreads of other leaders’ ratings were much closer: Danielle Smith, Wildrose, 43 per cent disapprove, 46 per cent approve; Raj Sherman, Alberta Liberals, 40 per cent disapprove, 37 per cent approve; Brian Mason, NDP, 35 per cent disapprove, 40 per cent approve.
Think HQ’s conclusions were based on a survey of 1,214 self-selected members of an “online research panel” between Feb. 12 and Feb. 16. The company says the poll has a margin or error of plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
Turning to the Environics numbers, 72 per cent of respondents said they favour returning to a progressive income tax and abandoning Alberta’s so-called flat tax, a relic of the Ralph Klein era that is not flat at all, but blatantly favours the wealthy.
Environics said 78 of the poll’s respondents favoured higher taxes on corporate taxes and taxes on high-income earners. The pollster also said 71 per cent of respondents agreed with the statement that Albertans are not getting their fair share of royalty revenue.
Respondents identified several spending priorities, including creating a provincial strategy for long-term care for seniors (70 per cent in favour) and protecting publicly funded health care against for-profit health care (57 per cent).
Environics used a telephone survey of 1,014 adult Albertans from Feb. 14-24 and says the margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Now, anyone who has read this blog for long will know that I am not a fan of Think HQ’s methodology and that I have more time for the polling methods used by Environics.
Since the on-line panels like Think HQ’s tend to be drawn from the politically hyper-engaged, I don’t entirely trust this one’s conclusions. That is to say, I think it highlights an undeniable trend, but I seriously doubt Wildrose support has reached 38 per cent, or that Redford Tory support has plummeted to 26 per cent – just yet, anyway.
If I were to guess, I’d put the support for both parties in a dead heat, probably in the low 30s. Who knows, support for the NDP might be even higher – you have to be an eternal optimist to be an Alberta Knee-Dipper like me.
But whatever you think of Think HQ’s methods, the direction it has identified is clear – and real.
The high level of support for public services, public programs and the taxes needed to pay for them identified by Environics are also real – as anyone who talks to living and breathing Albertans knows.
It is said here these attitudes explain a lot about why Ms. Redford’s winning coalition from last April is crumbling, at least on the left-hand side.
Both polls strongly suggest that Albertans aren’t buying what Alison Redford is trying to sell. Both polls strongly suggest that plenty of Albertans are not happy about the fact she’s not keeping her promises.
Given the political position most often taken by Alberta Diary, some readers will find this conclusion tendentious. Fair enough, I guess. Indeed, some non-Albertans may also find these two polls’ conclusions contradictory.
Moreover, there’s still plenty of time for the Redford Tories to pull their fat out of the fire again. Even the way her government handles this week’s upcoming budget on Thursday could make a big difference.
Still, it’s said here that taken together the polls show the Wildrose Party’s departed strategic guru, Tom Flanagan, got it right. To wit: If voters on the left abandon the Progressive Conservatives and return to their traditional political homes, the Wildrose Party has a chance to grasp the brass ring.
It’s almost a shame that Dr. Flanagan, who celebrates his 69th birthday today, is not longer with his party to have his prescience acclaimed.
Lol. I have a better caption for the top photo. “The area surrounding the Alberta legislature after it was carpet bombed by NATO jets. This came after the Wildrose gov’t attempted to enact draconian anti-gay legislation, prompting a NATO led humanitarian intervention mission though some believe it was a decision by the Wildrose gov’t to accept Chinese Yuan for bitumen payments instead of U.S. dollars.”
This post contained a bad typo, which has now been fixed, attributing one of the numbers from Think HQ’s survey to Environics. My apologies to both pollsters for this error. And my thanks to my sharp-eyed readers – one of whom was the vice president of Environics – for so kindly and gently pointing this error out to me. Remember, your blogger is like a trapeze artist without a net. I rely on readers to catch me when I tumble!
Polls at this stage of the Tories’ mandate are as telling as the score after the opening two plays of a football game. Voters can express their disdain and frustration dramatically because there is no consequence to a theoretical vote. It’s like the disgruntled employee who rages at home to his wife about the earful he’s going to give his boss the next day. Morning comes and he’s suddenly more circumspect.
I’d love to see the progressive conservatives crash and burn but, despite their obvious corruption and outright incompetence, they are still a safe choice. I suspect it will take something much more dramatic and threatening than emergency room waiting times and a ballooning deficit to get Alberta voters to take a chance on the unknown.
*sigh*, this does offer some hope for possible change, even though a change toward Wild Rose would encourage me to leave the province. But I’m getting wiser as I age: Alberta is full of apathetic, uninformed voters. They vote conservative because they learned to do so from their parents. Even if the media tells them Wild Rose is doing better in the polls, they will line up and do as they have always done. The Liberals and NDP are merely symbolic of a multi-party system.
Alison Redford may be Alberta’s Kim Campbell. If she brings in a slash and burn budget tomorrow (and despite what is being reported the Tories may have a B and C budget to keep the masses from the gates) the Tories are toast. The big tent will fold and all the factions will go their merry way.
She may be smart, but is proving to be politically obtuse in every way. Come on woman! Get some spin-meisters and listen to them.
In the end it didn’t matter that Smith lost, Redford is enacting the Wildrose platform.
The Wild Rose Party was/is a small right wing group of extremists who caught the Oil Industry eye and finance support. Harper supported them totally throwing his seasoned election types into the WRP as managers during the elections. We now have a total circus of nutters for an official opposition!
The Wild Rose Party and the oil companies have pushed their cause forward by deluding the large LDS (Mormon) following in Southern Alberta with some really hare-brained ideology not the least of which is “the oil companies own the oil and left wing parties are trying to steal it from them”. Next, like Harper, they have pushed hard on the equalization payment; a Canadian solution to our national well being saying “Alberta has always paid for Eastern Canada and we get nothing in return.” ‘ plays well with the stealing of the oil companies oil.
Alberta received equalization payments from conception until 1947 and again from 1957 to 1965. We got our share of the program when we needed it! It was not called equalization until much later on but, the support still came from the Central Government to Alberta of those many years!
The Wild Rose Party continue to muddy the water by saying the equalization payments were not started until years later. That in itself is true but, this does not change the fact Alberta survived on payments from Ottawa for a great many years before they named it Equalization payments .
They also sight the Chase Manhattan Bank as being the great Canadian Savior by saving us from the evil eastern banks of the day. One does not have to wonder about their US origins!
The Alberta Party is still lurking in the background having no policy or platforms saying they will be whatever Albertans want them to be. Always taking studies and never committing. They too have the interest of the oil industry and will be left extremists depending on what is needed to destabilize the vote in Alberta. It is a sad state of affairs when a single industry can manipulate our political landscape like they do! A vote for the Alberta Party is more than a wasted vote; it is a very damaging vote!
The Alberta New Democratic Party came out with a lot of very good, well thought out, sensible thinking this last election. Arguments that came forward on the various news sites were heavily laced with nonsense labels such as “left” “right” and “socialist” whereas their platform had nothing to do with any of these labels. The NDP have never given any indication they will harm the industries or, in effect kill the golden goose!
The fact is, the 3 billion dollars a year we are missing out of our economy could only make their jobs easier, get them larger wages and reduce their cost of living. Perhaps next time!
The Alberta Liberal Party, My choice put forward some very adroit and well thought out platform items. Among the foremost plans was the doing away with the Alberta Health Authority. That would have effectively stopped the move to privatization cold! The Health Authority’s main job is to privatize health care, pushing as hard and fast as they can, taking whatever you will give up. Legislation changes say you cannot sue the Government or the health authority for things that go wrong.
The Conservatives have savaged the education in this province cutting most support at all levels for university education while building very shallow and sometimes dangerous trade programs to turn out bodies for the oil patch. The Liberals proposed doing away with post secondary tuition. This would have pushed forward an immediate increase in Albertans moving into executive positions in industry.
The thing is, if we had the 41 billion of dollars in tax revenues that was due to us we would be in a position of multi-choices and financing that would be assured for municipalities and cities; hospitals and schools. Gone would be the scenario of telling Albertans how lucky we are the Conservatives found some money for a special project of theirs. I am very sure the Conservative rank and file did not sign up for this travesty of Government. We lost more in simple taxes on profits than we ever got from land lease sales.
Think of the 41 billion dollars a year of your money that is being stolen; tucked into foreign oil pockets! Why in the world would you continue to support this group? They have done nothing; nothing at all except lie to you and elevate their own status.
Cut and paste this forward link to your browser:
http://albertathedetails.blogspot.com/2012/08/alberta-losses-billion-due-to.html
I wonder how those who voted her in feel now? It is a crying shame that she put us in a very deep dark hole that we will never find our way out.